Hunting for nuclear weapons in the digital age
in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
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How might AI-augmented intelligence gathering and analysis systems impact the survivability and credibility of states’ nuclear-deterrent forces? Technologies such as AI, machine learning, and big-data analytics associated with the ‘computer revolution’ have the potential to significantly improve the ability of militaries to locate, track, target, and destroy a rival's nuclear-deterrent forces without the need to deploy nuclear weapons. Thus, AI applications that make survivable strategic forces such as submarines and mobile missiles more vulnerable (or perceived as such), could have destabilizing escalatory effects, even if the state in possession of these counterforce capabilities did not intend to use them. This chapter argues that AI will likely soon overcome some of the remaining technical barriers to reliably and accurately locate and track submarines. Thereby, eroding the deterrence utility of stealthy Ballistic Missile Submarines and making use-them-or-lose-them situations more likely to occur.

Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare

The USA, China, and strategic stability

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