Michael F. Oppenheimer
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Hard times ahead for US soft power
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US soft power is in decline. The evidence and causes are both internal to the US. (and thus potentially subject to our control), and external/structural (and probably not reversible). The internal causes range from grievous and persistent mistakes in the use of our unrivalled hard power, to the incompetent administration of domestic and foreign policy, to our deeply dysfunctional politics. The external factors represent trends evident for some time: the diffusion of hard and soft power among multiple states; a nationalist reaction against liberal globalisation which has imposed barriers trade, investment, and ideas across borders; and the global diversity of home-grown political and economic institutions, which has defeated any convergence around democratic capitalism. It is difficult to imagine a reversal of these trends over the next decade. The recent spate of US legislation is impressive, but could succumb to structural forces within US politics-of polarisation, radicalisation-that show no signs of abating. The reputational gains achieved by competent US leadership in resisting the Russian invasion of Ukraine are also important, but the jury is out on the results. The good news for our ‘attractiveness’ is that we have it within our power to live up to our values. If we can, our soft power will follow, at least among like-minded states, even as our adversaries react to a deepening challenge to their institutions and influence.

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