Luíza Cerioli
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The romantic triangle (1989–2003)
The Saudi-Iranian rapprochement
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This chapter contends that the period from 1990 to 2003 was one of the lost opportunities. It shows how the three countries shared threat perceptions that could lead to a relationship improvement. However, the triangle turned into a ‘romantic triangle’ instead, in which the Saudi–Iranian rapprochement materialised, but Iran and the United States failed to reconcile. The chapter presents the Gulf War as altering the balance of power and, by exploring ideational, cognitive, and leadership factors, shows how domestic politics played a crucial role in the three countries’ regional strategies. It detected that Iran's assessment of threats became more complex, enabling the necessary pragmatism for reinsertion into the international system. The Saudi leadership, satisfied by Washington’s continuity of the Carter Doctrine after the Cold War, perceived Iran’s pragmatism as a signal to readjust ties. The chapter exposes how interconnected environmental perceptions, cognitive lenses, and political ambitions are. These factors explain how the US Dual Containment strategy ensured that attempts to improve the US–Iran ties failed. Thus, the triangle continued to be marked by the US–Iran enmity, ultimately weakening the Saudi–Iranian advances. Eventually, 9/11 and the US’s neoconservativism led to environmental restrictions for both Tehran and Riyadh. In sum, the chapter demonstrates how leadership can drive the relations towards a more collaborative scenario when the systemic environment allows it. However, by 2003, the opportunities faded. Ultimately, the Iraq invasion would return the triangle to a similar scenario of the 1980s: an interventionist Washington, an anxious Riyadh, and a non-conformist Tehran.

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The Persian Gulf Triangle

The relations between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States

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