Luíza Cerioli
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The stable marriage revised (2003–2014)
Establishing a new rivalry
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Chapter 6 delves into the restoration of a ‘stable marriage’ arrangement within the strategic triangle, with working US–Saudi relations while US–Iran and Saudi–Iran relations soured. Emphasising the complexity and fluctuation of power dynamics, the chapter examines how the Iraq invasion catalysed a re-evaluation process in Riyadh, reaffirming, therefore, the strategic triangle. This event favoured all three parties: the US expanded its military presence and security ties with the GCC, Iran bolstered alliances with empowered Shia groups, and Saudi Arabia, above all, welcomed Saddam's downfall. The 2000s oil boom further boosted the military capacities of Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, by the 2010s, the United States showed signs of war fatigue, and sanctions curbed Iran's momentum. Only Saudi Arabia retained steady growth and arrived at the end of the period with more power than it started with. The chapter argues that while Iran's empowerment, together with the strong rhetoric of new neoconservative figures like President Ahmadinejad, explains the détente’s discontinuance, Riyadh's new aspiration for regional leadership also emerged due to its discontent with US policies, especially during the so-called Arab Spring and Iranian nuclear talks under President Obama. Leadership assessment is also pivotal in understanding the timing of nuclear negotiations and the factors that, for the first time, aligned to reduce tensions between Iran and the United States. However, it also points out how Obama’s failure to assess Saudi Arabia’s dissatisfaction while reaching out to Iran led to increased anxieties in the Arab nation, which responded with proactivity, sectarianism, and militarisation.

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The Persian Gulf Triangle

The relations between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States

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