Luíza Cerioli
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The book’s final chapter states that the fourth triangle ended when Mosul fell under ISIS control, shaking, once again, the balance of power. Yet, it argues that it is still not possible to define which contours – if any – the fifth triangle has. Thus, the chapter takes a look into the current conjuncture of the three dyads and points to some interesting horizons. First, Saudi Arabia’s empowerment in the last decade has led to a gradually less dependent position concerning the United States. While not interested in harming its relationship with Washington, Riyadh makes it clear that it will prioritise its own interests even if in opposition to the United States. Second, after almost four decades, the pattern of US–Iranian enmity remains, swinging only from stagnation in the best case or inflated tensions in the worst case, observed during President Trump’s maximum pressure campaign. Thirdly, competition between two self-perceived regional powers, Iran and Saudi Arabia, seems to be consolidating itself as the new normal in the region and will shape much of the geopolitical arrangements there. The chapter also returns to the relevance of Neoclassical Realism (NCR) to the International Relations of the Middle East (IRME) scholarship, stressing its ability to frame ideas, identities, and leadership in coherent explanative chains. It argues for the power of NCR to bring IRME closer to Global IR discussions and vice versa. The final note relates to multipolarity, the emergence of new extra-regional powers, particularly China, and the promising future research agenda in the Persian Gulf.

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The Persian Gulf Triangle

The relations between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States

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