Canan Balkır
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Galip L. Yalman
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Economics and the politicisation of civil society
The Turkish-Cypriot case
in Cyprus
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This chapter takes the individual citizen as a unit of analysis, and examines the positions, views and calculus of Cypriot citizens regarding the 2004 Annan Plan and a future solution in Cyprus. It uses extensive survey data collected in 2005 with a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots and 1,000 Turkish Cypriots. The chapter applies these data to two separate logistic regression models (one for the Greek Cypriots and one for the Turkish Cypriots) to explain the choices of voters in the April 2004 referenda. In reality, voters of both communities were rational agents to an extent, but also subtly influenced by the official positions of their political parties. For Turkish Cypriots, the overall positive tipping factors were security and power-sharing. Demographic variables were also important in shaping results, with low-income, university-educated and female Greek Cypriots often resisting reunification, while low-income and young Turkish Cypriots tended to favour the Plan.

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Cyprus

A conflict at the crossroads

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