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The Neighbourhood Policy revised
Nikki Ikani

This chapter focuses on how the EU reformed the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) after the Arab uprisings from late 2010, a critical juncture for the ENP, culminating in revision in May 2011. It describes the structural and institutional context, and argues that the EU policies in the Mediterraneanshow the ‘plastic’ nature of the institutions involved. It identifies France, Germany, Spain and Italy as key member state actors in the reform, with the EEAS and the Commissions as key European actors. It describes how the immediate temporal context influenced the policy change process and demonstrates that the outcome was at least partly produced by the temporal context. Between January and February 2011 several developments drove policy change: the spread of the uprisings, their evolution in Egypt and the number of refugees fleeing them greatly increased the salience of the ENP and of the region, and the urgency of ENP reform.

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
Changing the Neighbourhood Policy once more
Nikki Ikani

This chapter details the 2015 ENP reform after the Ukraine crisis. It explains how the institutional arrangements of the ENP allocated political authority during this critical juncture. Their main institutional ‘effects’ were the ENP’s long focus on trade and socio-economic development; its technocratic approach, particularly towards the east; and how its government made the institutions quite plastic – able to both shape and be shaped by the decision-making process. Germany, France and Poland took the lead in ENP reform because of this plasticity, aided by the political nature of the Ukraine crisis. The chapter discusses how the key actors perceived this critical juncture, their policy preferences and how these affected the reform. It focuses on how the temporal context impacted on the reform process, reconstructing the events that changed key actors’ perceptions: the Vilnius Summit and the ‘Euromaidan’, Yanukovych’s ousting, the annexation of the Crimea and the downing of flight MH17.

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
Abstract only
Catherine Moury, Stella Ladi, Daniel Cardoso, and Angie Gago

Chapter 2 focuses on the Greek case, from the start of the crisis in 2008, during the three successive bailout programmes (2010– 2018), and in the period after the end of the bailout until September 2019. As Greece was the first country to ask for a bailout, this chapter allows us to analyse the negotiations for the creation of the EU rescue mechanism, which were closely related to the first bailout. Given the succession of programmes, the Greek case also permits a comparison between the negotiations and implementation of different Memoranda led by different parties in the same country.

in Capitalising on constraint
Abstract only
Seeking multipolarity, favouring multilateralism, pursuing multialignment
Ian Hall

This chapter argues that India has long sought a multipolar international order, and that the majority view within its foreign and security policymaking elite is that such an order would be more conducive to India’s interests and values than the orders that have prevailed since the country gained independence in 1947. The chapter makes the case for understanding Indian ideas about multipolarity as being intrinsically bound up with a particular foreign policy strategy of ‘multialignment’ – an approach aimed at mitigating the risks inherent in a disordered, multipolar world in which the US cannot or will not play a stabilising role and in which other rising or resurgent states are pursuing strategies that aim at regional hegemony. The chapter develops the argument that this understanding of multipolarity is relatively new, having emerged in India’s strategic elite only in the past decade, but it draws on key strands of thought that have evolved since Indian nationalists began to think, in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, about possible foreign policies for a postcolonial India. It examines the responses of India’s foreign policymaking elite to the brief moment of post-Cold War unipolarity, and the anxieties that underlay them. The last section of the chapter explores the emergence of a more confident narrative about multipolarity in India since the early 2000s, and how this has shaped India’s approaches to securing and extending its interests and preferences in contemporary international relations.

in National perspectives on a multipolar order
Abstract only
Catherine Moury, Stella Ladi, Daniel Cardoso, and Angie Gago

Since 2010, five Eurozone governments have received financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, on the condition that a long list of policies were implemented. This is often described as a period in which powerless bailed out governments had no choice but to follow the lenders’ prescriptions; and it was contested whether they were in the former’s best interest. The effectiveness and fairness of conditionality have also been put into question. The introduction presents and contextualises these empirical questions and specifies the authors’ methodological choices.

The introduction starts by briefly recalling the context and the main events of the period covered. As individual countries are analysed in depth in the following chapters, this section focuses mainly on the European level. Arguments and methodology choices are then briefly presented before the remaining chapters are described.

in Capitalising on constraint
Abstract only
Nikki Ikani

This chapter outlines how to analyse and explain changes to EU foreign policy. After reviewing various theories of foreign policy change, it argues that how the EU changes its foreign policy after crisis remains under-studied and explains how and why this book intends to complement traditional, cumulative typologies in which each order of policy change is progressively significant. The central premise of this book is that to understand EU foreign policy after crisis, one must understand the decision-making process following those crises in order to grasp what kinds of policy changes – however minor or unsubstantiated – were seen, at what level, their substance, and why this output emerged from the decision-making process. To understand how EU foreign policy changes after crisis, we should consider how institutions and temporal context affected this process. This argument is founded on a theoretical dialogue between historical institutionalism, foreign policy analysis and public policy studies.

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
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The utility and limits of polarity analysis
Benjamin Zala

The introductory chapter outlines the rationale for the book and places the current debates about multipolarity in the wider context of the existing scholarly literature on polarity. The chapter discusses the continued utility of polarity analysis as well as what should be considered the limits of this concept. As part of making the case for the utility of the concept, the chapter argues in favour of distinguishing between polarity as an analytical tool deployed by scholars engaging in system-level theorising on the one hand, and an ‘ordering concept’ used by practitioners on the other. The chapter also discusses the limits of polarity analysis, identifying a number of major deficiencies and blind spots in the existing literature. This includes scholarship that explores the polarity debates in both the scholarly and practitioner realms with a view to developing conclusions about its substance, efficacy, and utility in national policy debates. The chapter then links this to the individual case study chapters that follow, highlighting the ways in which they not only shed light on the state of the debate in the individual states themselves, but also contribute valuable insights for polarity analysis in International Relations more generally. The broad methodological approach of the volume is outlined alongside setting out the guiding questions used to frame the empirical analysis in each of the case study chapters. The chapter ends with a brief description of the structure of the book and the key findings of each chapter.

in National perspectives on a multipolar order
Abstract only
Catherine Moury, Stella Ladi, Daniel Cardoso, and Angie Gago

Chapter 3 analyses the financial crisis and its aftermath in Ireland. Given its growth model and the fact that it was already very liberalised when the crisis began, Ireland is interesting and quite different from most of the other countries. However, it bears similarities with Cyprus in that the crisis was largely the result of an oversized and overexposed financial/banking sector and the economy was already very liberalised when the crisis began.

in Capitalising on constraint
H. D. P. Envall

This chapter investigates the reception of narratives about the rise of a multipolar order in Japan, a state once touted as a potential pole of power in a post-Cold War multipolar order in its own right. Instead, the chapter argues that the central framing of debates over multipolarity today in Tokyo is one of fear – fear of the end of unipolarity and the rise of multipolarity signalling an end to the assured peacefulness and prosperity of Northeast Asia, Japan’s immediate neighbourhood. It argues that there is a complex and important interaction between the explanatory and normative sides of the Japanese discourse on multipolarity. How the global distribution of power does and should manifest itself in polarity terms is often difficult to disentangle. Significantly, the chapter highlights the larger debates about order – in particular a specific conception of a liberal rules-based order – that Japanese decision-makers and analysts bring to bear on debates about a future multipolar distribution of power. This implies that the unipolar, US-led order is itself defined by a liberal outlook that needs to be preserved as the global order becomes increasingly multipolar. This chapter highlights the difficulties for Tokyo in holding on to this narrative through the Trump administration’s decidedly illiberal path in its foreign policy and its aftermath.

in National perspectives on a multipolar order
China and the concept of multipolarity in the post Cold War era
Nicholas Khoo and Zhang Qingmin

This chapter investigates the Chinese discourse on multipolarity and the related concept of multipolarisation. Nicholas Khoo and Zhang Qingmin provide an overview of the history of the use and abuse of the concept in both official Chinese discourse and academic scholarship, with an emphasis on the 1970s onwards. They focus on the notion of ‘multipolarisation’ – a dynamic, and potentially long and complicated process through which a multipolar order will emerge – in Chinese discourse and its role in discussions over Chinese foreign policy and grand strategy. Khoo and Zhang distinguish between the state’s view of this concept and the views of scholars, highlighting key differences around the respective Marxist and realist interpretations of this structural phenomenon that have emerged over the years. In the scholarly discourse, the authors also highlight the role of critics of the consensus on both the analytical and normative arguments about the prospect of a multipolar order. This section of the chapter focuses principally on the views of two very prominent academics, Ye Zicheng of Peking University and Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University. Ye has challenged the mainstream Chinese consensus by offering a more nuanced perspective on the process of multipolarisation itself, while Yan has argued that the view that international structure is moving towards multipolarisation fails to reflect reality, and that bipolarity rather than multipolarity is taking shape.

in National perspectives on a multipolar order