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Most discussion of Brexit’s social aspects has focused on what led to the referendum outcome and its implications for the United Kingdom; the implications for the rest of the EU are less explored. This chapter focuses on the meaning and future of ‘social Europe’ and the interplay between two issues: the broader political economy of social policy in Europe, and the changing balance of social models among the remaining 27 member states. The chapter argues first that without the UK, a preponderance of EU member states will rely on forms of neocorporatism as well as a greater role for the state, potentially changing the essentially regulatory, ‘Eurolegalistic’ approach of EU law in social policy. Second, since much EU social policy is a regulatory outgrowth of economic policy, which is increasingly driven by Eurozone agendas, the EU’s fiscal governance system will build austerity into public policy decisions. Finally, the future of EU social policy will be shaped by the loss of the UK as a pillar of a liberal ‘northern’ block of states, fewer strategic options for Germany and more power for France.
Will Brexit reinforce or weaken EU security and defense policies, given that the United Kingdom has historically played a prominent role in European Union defense? This chapter begins by outlining the role of the UK in promoting European defense in the post-war era, also noting efforts by the US to shape defense developments within and outside NATO. It then examines the consequences of the Maastricht Treaty and the creation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, discussing how the EU needed to balance its institution- and capacity-building with the defense priorities of the US in NATO, and with the clashing perspectives of its member states on a range of foreign policy and defense questions. Yet in the years before the Brexit referendum, British governments disengaged from the Common Security and Defence Policy while re-centering NATO and the Special Relationship at the heart of UK security. Examining EU proposals for new permanent structured cooperation (PESCO), this chapter concludes that while PESCO will deepen defense cooperation and drive defense integration, the exit of the UK will also transform defense leadership, ceding a larger role to France.
How is Brexit likely to affect efforts to complete the European Single Market for capital and financial services? Brexit will shrink European capital markets by roughly 25 per cent, with even larger declines in equity markets and pension funds, and losing the UK will undoubtedly complicate EU financial reform efforts. This chapter assesses the technical rationale behind two key European financial reforms – banking union and European Capital Markets Union, before identifying the priorities of three key players in shaping these reforms: the European Commission, United Kingdom, and Germany. Looking at these priorities through the lens of Dirk Schoenmaker’s financial trilemma, Brexit seems likely to mean that European financial markets will evolve more in line with German preferences. In practice, this means that banks will continue to play a leading role in European finance, with protective niches carved out for nationally sensitive financial actors, and concern over moral hazard stemming from mutualized liabilities will likely outweigh arguments calling for greater European solidarity.
This chapter focuses on the value of text, language and how the Good Friday Agreement was constructed. It explores the role of text in creating momentum and interrogates its function as an instrument of persuasion.
This chapter details the dialogue with republicans that led to the IRA ceasefire of 1994 and how the formative stages of the peace process took shape through confidential contacts and channels
The conclusion summarises the key elements that shaped attempts to build peace in Northern Ireland and highlights the value of a common approach to dialogue and negotiation as well as the need for a coherent strategy to support political aspiration and objectives.
The conclusion draws together the main strands of the interview findings and reiterates the key shifts that occurred from the Good Friday Agreement on. It highlights the problems involved in implementing the structures of peace and notes how a shift from ambiguity to clarity as a peace process goes on can create problems of rigidity and intransigence which make the promise of peace harder to achieve and can sour political relations as a result.
This chapter identifies how a consensual approach to negotiations was developed between the Irish and British Governments and how this approach informed understanding about what an agreement would look like.
This chapter explores how the Irish worked to shape the course of Sunningdale, what went wrong, what happened afterwards and how relations developed between Dublin and the British, moving towards the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the increased role of Irish involvement in the affairs of Northern Ireland.
This chapter is concerned with how leadership operates in a peace process and examines how decisions were used to reinforce leadership goals and objectives in order to increase the possibilities of agreement