Search results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • "emerging technology" x
  • International Relations x
  • Refine by access: All content x
Clear All
The USA, China, and strategic stability
Author: James Johnson

Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare offers an innovative and counter-intuitive study of how and why AI-infused weapon systems will affect the strategic stability between nuclear-armed states. The book demystifies the hype surrounding AI in the context of nuclear weapons and, more broadly, future warfare. It highlights the potential, multifaceted intersections of this and other disruptive technology – robotics and autonomy, cyber, drone swarming, big-data analytics, and quantum communications – with nuclear stability. Anticipating and preparing for the consequences of the AI-empowered weapon systems is, therefore, fast becoming a critical task for national security and statecraft. The book considers the impact of these trends on deterrence, military escalation, and strategic stability between nuclear-armed states – especially China and the US. Surprisingly little research considers how AI might affect nuclear-armed states’ perceptions of others’ intentions, rational choices, or strategic decision-making psychology. The book addresses these topics and more. It provides penetrating, nuanced, and valuable insights grounded in the latest multi-disciplinary research. The book draws on a wealth of political and cognitive science, strategic studies, and technical analysis to shed light on the coalescence of developments in AI and other disruptive emerging technologies. It sketches a clear picture of the potential impact of AI on the digitized battlefield and broadens our understanding of critical questions for international affairs. AI will profoundly change how wars are fought, and how decision-makers think about nuclear deterrence, escalation management, and strategic stability – but not for the reasons you might think.

Abstract only
Managing an AI future
James Johnson

This book has advanced the case for narrow AI as a fundamentally destabilizing force, which could increase the risk of nuclear war. It has explained how, left unchecked, the uncertainties created by the rapid proliferation and diffusion of AI into advanced weapon systems will become a significant source of future instability and great-power (especially US–China) strategic competition. The book has conceptualized recent technological developments in AI with the broader spectrum of emerging technologies

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
James Johnson

. 6 Towards this end, the chapter unpacks the following research puzzles. How might AI and other advanced or emerging technologies exacerbate the co-mingling problem-set? How concerned is China about inadvertent or accidental escalation? How serious are the escalation risks arising from entanglement in a US–China crisis or conflict scenario? How can the US, China, or others mitigate the escalation risks exacerbated by the advent of AI technologies? In this way, the chapter sketches a roadmap for a journey that US and

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
James Johnson

within the broad spectrum of military technologies associated with the ‘computer revolution.’ It argues that military AI and the advanced capabilities it enables are best viewed as a natural manifestation of an established trend in emerging technology. Even if AI does not become the next revolution in military affairs, it could have significant implications for the central pillars of nuclear deterrence. Strategic stability: a platonic ideal? Combining cognition, stress, strategic culture, wargaming, and game

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
Abstract only
Opening the AI Pandora’s box
James Johnson

tethers the book’s core arguments into a robust analytical framework. It contextualizes AI within the broad spectrum of military technologies associated with the ‘computer revolution.’ The chapter describes the notion of ‘military AI’ as a natural manifestation of an established trend in emerging technology. Even if AI does not become the next revolution in military affairs, and its trajectory is more incremental and prosaic, the implications for the central pillars of nuclear deterrence could still be profound.  Part II

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
James Johnson

capability of this kind will be operational for the foreseeable future. 39 For now, however, the technical feasibility of this hypothesis remains highly contested. On the one hand, several experts posit that emerging technologies such as AI, quantum communications, and big-data analytics will empower new iterations of highly portable sensing, communications, and signal-processing platforms that could render at-sea nuclear deterrence all but obsolete. 40 On the other hand, some consider this hypothesis technically

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
James Johnson

military force use. Striking this balance will be extremely challenging, however. Recent research on human–machine teaming in non-military organizations highlights the complexity of optimizing human users’ trust in AI systems, with evidence of these users veering from irrational aversion to irrational overconfidence and trust in machines. 109 Thus, as emerging technologies such as AI and autonomy, quantum computing, and big-data analytics are synthesized with and superimposed on states’ legacy NC3 systems – at various

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
James Johnson

-related (and dual-use) domains, the US will increasingly view future technological incremental progress in emerging technologies – and especially unexpected technological breakthroughs or surprises – through a national security lens. Thus, responses to these perceived threats will be shaped and informed by broader US–China geopolitical tensions. 96 These concerns resonated in the 2018 US Nuclear Posture Review . This emphasized that geopolitical tensions and emerging technology in the nuclear domain could coalesce

in Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare
Abstract only
Andreas Immanuel Graae and Kathrin Maurer

strange sensorial world of insects. In his chapter, Andreas Immanuel Graae unfolds this historical link between insects and machinic life through the figure of the swarm as it is represented in the novel The Glass Bees by the German author and thinker Ernst Jünger. Jünger was an eager entomologist with a keen eye for emerging technologies and their impact on the human, and his story envisions a future community where robotic insects have taken over human jobs. The novel thus reflects a new set of technoscientific imaginaries that flourished in the Cold War period

in Drone imaginaries
Challenges in cyberdefense cooperation for the U.S. and India
Bedavyasa Mohanty

threats that emerging technologies pose. To be fair, this is a complex and uncharted terrain to navigate, with its idiosyncratic challenges, but is also one that presents unique opportunities. A strategic bilateral partnership in cyberspace is in some ways delinked from the legacy of the larger strategic relationship and therefore can shed some of the accompanying baggage – such as India’s onerous and monolithic defense procurement process. 2 This opens up the possibility of defining a new normal in how the two states

in The future of U.S.–India security cooperation