This chapter investigates the potential for the new disorder in the context of a specific geographical locus: Crimea. It is in this historical pivot-point that relations between great powers will be most significantly tested, and here that one finds political, economic and security quandaries that are best conceptualised in terms of a ‘trilemma’. This occurs in terms of competing themes of democracy, self-determination and economic globalisation. The argument here is that managing each of these three themes will be a difficult task in general, and virtually impossible where the major power centres of the post-unipolar world ultimately meet. Accordingly the chapter examines the preconditions for Russian involvement in Crimea, the instruments it employed, its normative justifications for doing so, and the domestic and foreign policy gains it sought to engender.
This chapter concentrates on a case study from outside the European Union's (EU) borders, because it highlights both the scale of the problem and the EU's limitations in dealing with it at a political and operational level. It provides an overview of organised crime in the Balkans and selects Transdniestria as a case study of a criminalised zone in the EU's new neighbourhood. The Transdniestria example focuses on identifying the links between organised crime and frozen conflicts and the policy implications this has for EU enlargement and foreign policy. The relationship between EU enlargement and the soft security threats posed by organised crime is complex and heavily contested. The existence of Pridnestrovskaya Moldavskaya Respublika (PMR) appears an insurmountable blockage to the consolidation and democratisation of the post-Soviet Moldovan state and to any aspirations of Moldova joining the EU.