Politics

New identities and the British 'culture war'
Robert Johns

This chapter explains why the Conservatives secured their crushing electoral victory. It explores the flow of voters between parties and the influence of age, social class and education on vote choices. The chapter traces the impact of the Brexit factor in shaping the outcome, especially in former Labour-held but Leave-voting areas (the so-called ‘red wall’ seats). It also emphasises the importance of less visible factors, including social change and the continuing differences between towns and cities. The chapter shows that Brexit in many ways hastened processes that were already under way. Nevertheless, the ideological proximity between parties and voters and perceptions of economic competence in 2019 also influenced the vote, further favouring the Conservative Party.

in Breaking the deadlock
Nikki Ikani

This chapter develops a typology by first addressing shortcomings in existing conceptualisations of policy change when applied to EU foreign policy change. The starting point is the different kinds of policy change observed in Chapters 2 and 3. This chapter identifies changes which are difficult to identify using cumulative typologies that divide policy change into progressive ‘orders’, either because first-order and second-order policy changes – which ought to precede or accompany third-order ‘paradigm changes’ – are absent, or because they constitute a different kind of paradigm change, where the policy rationale is questioned and modified without policy undergoing substantive change. It argues that two categories – symbolic change and constructive ambiguity – complement the policy change outputs for the EU, and both institutional plasticity and temporal contingency affect which outcome is more likely. This chapter suggests dividing the temporal context into three registers: structural (decades, centuries), conjunctural (years) and liminal (days, weeks).

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
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Nikki Ikani

This book provides a single, dedicated, analytical framework for investigating and explaining how the EU adapts its foreign policy after crises, which can be applied to the formal, institutional realm of EU foreign policiesand the ‘softer’ areas of EU external action. We need to assess first the institutional ‘plasticity’ of the policy area: how rules and institutions constrain the key decision-makers during the process of change, but also how the institutions are moulded by decision-makers. Institutions can give form and can take form. The concept of plasticity holds special value in European studies. A second important building block of this analytical framework is temporal contingency, meaning that the policy reform was not logically necessary but has come about owing to events, not all of them foreseen or expected. The conclusion summarises a revised typology of EU foreign policy change, outlining its potential and suggesting avenues for future research.

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
The victory of the Eurosceptics
Paul Whiteley, Patrick Seyd, and Harold D. Clarke

This chapter analyses developments within the Labour Party between 2017 and 2019 and why Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership contributed to the party’s worst election defeat since the 1930s. It explains how Labour’s surprisingly strong result in 2017 allowed Corbyn to consolidate his position as leader and overcome the hostility of much of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). The chapter then explores Labour’s own challenges in responding to the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum and Corbyn’s failure to provide a clear lead on this issue after 2017. It further explores the allegations of anti-Semitism that dogged the party, and Corbyn personally, and the destabilising effects of factionalism. The chapter finally charts how growing disillusionment with Corbyn’s leadership cost Labour support in 2019 and how the party’s grassroots subsequently turned to a very different leader, Sir Keir Starmer

in Breaking the deadlock
A framework of EU foreign policy change
Author: Nikki Ikani

This book provides readers with an analytical framework that serves to investigate and explain how the EU adapts its foreign policy in the wake of crisis. While a range of studies dedicated to foreign policy stability and change exist for the US context, such analyses are rare for the assessment and measurement of foreign policy change at the European Union level. This book explores a range of theories of (foreign) policy change and assesses their value for explaining EU foreign policy change. Changes to EU foreign policy, this study proposes based upon an in-depth investigation of recent episodes in which foreign policy has changed, are not captured well using existing typologies of policy change from other fields of study.

Offering a new perspective on the question of change, this book proposes an analytical framework focused on how institutions, institutional ‘plasticity’ and temporal context impact on the decision-making process leading to change. It thus provides readers with the tools to analyse, explain and conceptualise the various change outcomes in EU foreign policy. In so doing, it sets the theoretical approach of historical institutionalism to work in an EU foreign policy setting. Based on a rich empirical analysis of five case studies it provides a revised typology of EU foreign policy change. It proposes two novel forms of foreign policy change, symbolic change and constructive ambiguity, as frequent and important outcomes of the EU decision-making process.

Abstract only
Catherine Moury, Stella Ladi, Daniel Cardoso, and Angie Gago

Chapter 6 focuses on Cyprus, a case which has warranted much less discussion in the literature. This therefore constitutes an important contribution to the understanding of the contagious nature of the Eurozone crisis. Among other things, it sheds light on the conditions that forced the Cypriot government to ask for a bailout and the strain that the Russian factor put in the relationship with the EU. This chapter shows that once the bailout was agreed a different pattern of negotiations emerged, where consensus between the political parties and increased participation of technocrats enabled room for manoeuvre for the Cypriot government.

in Capitalising on constraint
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Minority government and Brexit
Thomas Quinn

This chapter analyses the history of Euroscepticism in the Conservative Party. It shows how Theresa May tried and failed to unite the Tories around her withdrawal agreement. The chapter shows why many Eurosceptics regarded May’s agreement as ‘Brexit in name only’ and how members of the European Research Group (ERG) were able to exploit the parliamentary deadlock and the predictable behaviour of other parties to block the withdrawal agreement. It shows how May’s preparedness to contemplate a second referendum and the Conservative Party’s disastrous showing in the 2019 European elections led to her eventual resignation. The chapter then considers why Boris Johnson was elected leader. It then examines how he recast the government as a Leave- government, imposed party discipline, obtained a new withdrawal agreement and manoeuvred the opposition parties to accept a general election in order to ‘get Brexit done’.

in Breaking the deadlock
The Neighbourhood Policy revised
Nikki Ikani

This chapter focuses on how the EU reformed the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) after the Arab uprisings from late 2010, a critical juncture for the ENP, culminating in revision in May 2011. It describes the structural and institutional context, and argues that the EU policies in the Mediterraneanshow the ‘plastic’ nature of the institutions involved. It identifies France, Germany, Spain and Italy as key member state actors in the reform, with the EEAS and the Commissions as key European actors. It describes how the immediate temporal context influenced the policy change process and demonstrates that the outcome was at least partly produced by the temporal context. Between January and February 2011 several developments drove policy change: the spread of the uprisings, their evolution in Egypt and the number of refugees fleeing them greatly increased the salience of the ENP and of the region, and the urgency of ENP reform.

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
Changing the Neighbourhood Policy once more
Nikki Ikani

This chapter details the 2015 ENP reform after the Ukraine crisis. It explains how the institutional arrangements of the ENP allocated political authority during this critical juncture. Their main institutional ‘effects’ were the ENP’s long focus on trade and socio-economic development; its technocratic approach, particularly towards the east; and how its government made the institutions quite plastic – able to both shape and be shaped by the decision-making process. Germany, France and Poland took the lead in ENP reform because of this plasticity, aided by the political nature of the Ukraine crisis. The chapter discusses how the key actors perceived this critical juncture, their policy preferences and how these affected the reform. It focuses on how the temporal context impacted on the reform process, reconstructing the events that changed key actors’ perceptions: the Vilnius Summit and the ‘Euromaidan’, Yanukovych’s ousting, the annexation of the Crimea and the downing of flight MH17.

in Crisis and change in European Union foreign policy
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Catherine Moury, Stella Ladi, Daniel Cardoso, and Angie Gago

Chapter 2 focuses on the Greek case, from the start of the crisis in 2008, during the three successive bailout programmes (2010– 2018), and in the period after the end of the bailout until September 2019. As Greece was the first country to ask for a bailout, this chapter allows us to analyse the negotiations for the creation of the EU rescue mechanism, which were closely related to the first bailout. Given the succession of programmes, the Greek case also permits a comparison between the negotiations and implementation of different Memoranda led by different parties in the same country.

in Capitalising on constraint